The end of the “Flatten the Curve”: new German Corona is strategy visible

Chancellor Merkel speaks of a “fragile success” in the fight against the Corona-pandemic – in Mini-steps to public life again. The message: We have to get used to a life with the Virus. And in place of the “Flatten the Curve” now for a new strategy.

Markus Söder has a dream, where there is crisis, then go in the Corona. “Our goal is, if it is perfect would be that we are in a Situation such as Webasto to come,” said the Prime Minister of Bavaria (CSU) at a press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) on early Wednesday evening. Since the heads of government of the 16 States had promulgated together with the Chancellor, the first loosening in the fight against the Coronavirus.

An old dream alive

Webasto is the automotive supplier before the gates of Munich, in which, in January, the first German Coronavirus-positive cases. At the time, the Doctors and the authorities, the chain of infection completely understand and stop the spread of the Virus. However, according to the Après-Ski-nightmare of Ischgl, the carnival celebration of Heinsberg, and the loss of control in the North of Italy, the Virus was spreading in Germany rapidly. “The chains of Infection are not partly understand,” said the Minister of health, Jens Spahn (CDU) at the end of February.

Now we have mid-April, the number of new infections has declined to show the output restrictions and the shutdown of public life seem to have effect. And the dream of the traceable chains of Infection is suddenly back alive.

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“Trace the Trail”

Merkel, Söder and all the other decision-makers – from the science from the policy – hope now, to some extent, in Phase 2 of their battle plan against the Virus to occur. Phase 1 was under the Mantra, “Flatten the Curve” is known: the slope of The number of cases had to be carried out slowly. In this way, the cases over a longer period of time to get distributed in the emergency departments of the Republic and the German health system is not overloaded. So that there is no Italian conditions, where Doctors need to think of completely congested intensive care units, who you treat and who you let die. The Problem with "Flatten the Curve": The curve remains flat, would have to be to get the action very long, because it takes a long time until a sufficiently large proportion of the population is immune, or vaccine is available.

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The curve to flatten out, were drastic measures necessary. The contact between people in public life had to be so far as possible, to shut down. Now, however, the Transition into Phase 2 is to be made, which could be perhaps “Trace the Trail” to summarize: Follow the tracks. Infected would have to quickly prevent to be recognized, contact persons isolated it from spreading. To get there, do not need to reduce the number of active Infected, but again a radical, a flattened curve is sufficient. There are first tendencies in this direction. To would generous loosening of this project, but probably impossible.

“Very, very crucial”

It is only when the numbers slow enough rise, the hope, and if the technical possibilities are created, it would be after a certain time of each new case, to immediately recognize and understand. “It must be our goal, every infection chain tracking to be able to,” said Merkel at the beginning of the press conference – one of your key phrases this Wednesday evening.

Against this Background, Merkel is also expected, why continues to be a very prudent course is driven. "We have made model considerations. The reproduction rate is now at 1.& quot; This is not good. But, the margins were small: "If each Infected 1,1, people will infect you, then we are in October again, on the border of the health system. 1.2 we are coming in July to the load limit. In 1.3 we’ll be there in June." To get to the point that it was at the beginning of the crisis, where chains of Infection could understand, must be kept the reproduction rate remains as low as possible.

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App could be a key instrument

By “Flatten the Curve” was in Merkel’s press conference with Söder, Hamburg mayor Peter Tschentscher and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (both SPD), so hardly the speech. "Trace the trail" is now in fashion. The four leaders talked a lot about an App that can possible contacts with Infected track. The use of the Federal government’s planned Smartphone App should be voluntary. Above all, the health authorities would be required, Merkel said. The question was of “very, very crucial”.

When the App will come from is unclear, acknowledged by the Chancellor in the press conference. There are still too many hurdles: The Robert-Koch-Institute and various authorities have to approve the App first, it would add data legal considerations. “All of this takes time, but it is worked with high pressure on it.”

Phase 3 is still far away

However, if the App should soon appear, and if a sufficient number of citizens you should install voluntarily, and, if technically everything should work: science and policy would be a powerful tool in the Hand, the power of the outbreak of new pandemic herd immediately recognizable. In this way, could be made, for example, the inhabitants of a town or the employees of a company targeted under quarantine, without the need to be sealed off neighboring places in the district also. Restrictions could then locally apply and would not need to be a whole Region or even a whole state attached.

The rationale behind this strategy: If the policy is holding back now with relaxations, in a next step, perhaps more generous steps towards normality.

Also remarkable: Of a world without the Coronavirus, there is no talk is long already. The goal of a seamless tracking of the chain of Infection is already ambitious enough. Moving “into a new normality,” said Minister of Finance Scholz. Phase 3 of the Corona-Plan – final victory over the Virus is still far away.

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