Germany is in the waiting position. The currently most pressing question on the many people hoping for an answer: when can be relaxed, the massive output restrictions and no-Contact orders? Researchers at the Max-Planck-Institute now hope. You say Germany has made the turn.
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“Our society can really be proud of the fact that they managed this turnaround,” explains Viola pries guy. The scientist heads a research group at the Max-Planck-Institute for dynamics and self-organization, which has presented new insights.
Consequently, the measures initiated over the past few weeks were successful. “We see a clear effect of the contact lock 22. March, and, of course, the contribution of each individual Person,“ the man Praised. A Simulation of the göttingen group is intended to show that the disastrous exponential growth of new infections has been broken.
Measures should be about two weeks to maintain
The conclusion of the researchers: "To get to the Corona epidemic in the handle, we have to limit social contacts for about two weeks at a Minimum." So that would make it approximately up to 22. April. The current measures of the Federal government and the länder are currently up to 19. April provided. After that, is still open. A decision has to be according to FOCUS-Online-information on the 15. April, in a Turn of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the Minister presidents of the Länder.
MPI for dynamics and self-organization , these graphics seems to be the prediction of the researchers to confirm: The green line corresponds to the forecast. The blue diamonds indicate the actual confirmed total number of infections.
However, as the researchers come to their Two-week forecast? In mid-March, the scientists had begun to model the course of the Corona-epidemic in Germany. The calculations should show the effect of the measures imposed on the course of the epidemic have. The researchers come to the conclusion that the measures of 8. and 16. March, such as daycare and school closures, as well as Assembly bans were effective; it was not enough by far yet, the spread of the Virus to contain.
The first measures would not be sufficient
“Our model calculation also shows that we had, in the meantime, around 200,000 confirmed infections, if it’s about the mild restrictions of 8. March would have remained, not to mention, if there were no any measures,“ the man Praised. On 8. March had called on the Minister of health Spahn, among other things, events with more than 1000 people to cancel. Eight days later, nationwide nurseries, schools and shops were closed.
Only the contact barrier have led to that now is that the increase in infections will continue to weaken. At the same time, the göttingen-based researchers make it clear: For an all-clear, it is too early. “Now, if the restrictions are lifted, we are back at the very beginning,” explains pries guy.
Success of individual measures can not specify modeling
The scientist hopes that it will give in the best case, soon there’ll be hundreds of new infections per day – this assumes, however, that Germany waited nearly two weeks in the current mode. Then a point would come back, to the contacts of new Patients identified and isolated could be.
Pries’s dream scenario: “I find it very encouraging that we could push with a strong restriction that continues in the next ten days, the new infections to the extent that we can make then, with caution, but hopefully with considerably fewer restrictions.”
Pries man also points to a weakness of one’s own model of inquiry. The calculations could not make any precise statement about it, what is the effect of each measure on the course of the epidemic. The development of the infected figures can only serve as a reality check for the statements of researchers about the packages of Measures. In the coming weeks, the group wants to run the model analysis. The scientists from the Max-Planck-Institute hope, “we can contribute with our research work to find the right way to deal with the Corona-epidemic in Germany”.
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