COVID-19: the analysis clearly shows the effect of different Corona-measures
Contact prohibitions, nightlife restrictions, closed kindergartens and schools: Since the middle of March were, respectively, apply in Germany, drastic measures to contain the Coronavirus pandemic. But what will that achieve? The simulations of the research teams.
Only recently, the Federal constitutional court has rejected the extension of the Corona-measures. Many people in this country will welcome this ruling, because, according to a survey, some of the measures, such as the prohibition of Contact, is increasingly in question. What good is a approach, ask yourself some. Researchers have an answer.
COVID-19-case numbers analysed in relation to the measures
In mid-March, a number of measures have been taken to the further spread of the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 limit as far as possible. Since then, life in Germany is severely restricted.
After the encouraging decrease in the COVID-19 new cases in the debate about the effectiveness of the measures taken so far, and further easing is gaining more and more momentum.
According to a current communication, it is researchers from the Max-Planck-Institute for dynamics and self-organization (MPIDS) and the University of Göttingen have now succeeded to analyze the German COVID-19-case numbers in terms of the measures and scenarios for the coming weeks to derive.
The computer models, the scientists could also provide insights into the effectiveness of the measures in other countries. Their results were published in the journal “Science”.
How well the measures have worked and what’s next?
Many people currently driving the question of how well the measures to contain the Corona of a pandemic in the past weeks have worked, and how it in the coming weeks, more will go.
These issues are also investigated by Researchers from the Max-Planck-Institute for dynamics and self-organization. The Team simulated since mid-March, together with scientists of the Göttingen research Campus in the course of the Corona-epidemic in Germany.
The researchers put in their model calculations, the profound limitations of public life in March with the development of the COVID-19-case numbers in terms of.
In particular, they have investigated the effect of three packages of Measures in March: The Cancel large public events, to the 8. In March, the closures of educational institutions, and many of the shops on the 16th. In March, as well as the far-reaching contacts lock-out on the 22. March.
The professionals combined data on the time course of the COVID-to study 19 new cases with a model for epidemic dynamics, which allows to analyze the previous pandemic in history and scenarios for the future.
Strong trend detected
According to the computer models, the packages of Measures have dampened the COVID-19 spread first, and the dreaded exponential growth finally broken.
“Our analysis clearly shows the effect of the different measures that ultimately brought together a strong reversal of the trend,” explains Viola pries Mann, research group leader at the MPIDS.
“Our model calculations thus show a total of the effect of the change in behaviour of people, which goes hand in hand with the measures,” adds Michael Wilczek, also head of the research group and co-author of the study.
Computer model transferable to other countries
The göttingen-based researchers, only Germany had not in their work but in the view.
“We have designed our computer model, from the beginning, so that it is on other countries and regions transferable. Our analysis tools are available on GitHub freely accessible and are now used by researchers around the world and developed further,“ so Jonas Dehning, first author of the study.
The göttingen Team is currently working on the model of European countries. This applies, in particular, the different time points of the measures in the different countries, to work out, which could allow conclusions on the effectiveness of the individual measures.
Worry about the second wave
The Germany analysis of the göttingen-based scientists on the basis of the number of cases to 21. April indicated an overall positive development for the coming weeks.
Their analysis also reveals, however, a Central challenge in the assessment of the epidemic dynamics: Changes in the spread of the novel Coronavirus will only be reflected with a significant delay in the COVID-19 case numbers.
“The first effects of the relaxations of 20. April, we see Recently in the case of numbers. And until we, the loosening of 11. May be able to evaluate, we have to wait two to three weeks,“ explains Michael Wilczek.
Therefore, the researchers observe the Situation carefully. They values daily new case numbers, in order to assess whether a second wave is expected.
In addition, the göttingen-based Team with three different model scenarios shows the number of new cases could continue to develop. If, with the loosening of 11. May should double the infection rate, it is expected that with the Start of a second wave.
If the contagion rate of accepts, instead, about the same value as the recovery rate, the number of daily new infections is roughly constant. There is the risk of a new wave there is, however, always.
According to Viola pries man but it is also possible that the number of new infections continues to fall.
“If all the people are still very careful, and contact tracing by health authorities effective attacks, and at the same time all the new foci of infection early and contained to be tracked, then the case numbers continue to fall,” says the göttingen physicist.
“How the Numbers will develop in the future depends so critical of our behavior, the observance of the distance recommendations and hygiene measures,” says the scientist. (ad)