Risk of Coronavirus infections of exaggerated?
On the Internet votes to make broad, the claim that the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was harmless and no worse than an ordinary flu disease. For this purpose, more or less conclusive arguments are presented, the people should convince you that there is no pandemic. What is the arguments?
Under the Corona Kristiker also known Doctors, such as, for example, Wolfgang Wodarg in some cases. But also some of the politicians stand behind the statements. The former CDU Bundestag member Vera Lengsfeld calls, for example, on Saturday on Twitter to a Petition to sign to repeal all the measures to be taken against the Corona of a pandemic. How resilient the arguments are?
What is the Coroan critics say?
Lengsfeld writes on Twitter: “The current through the Corona Virus Covid19 caused by the flu wave is demonstrably far less dangerous than other flu waves, which can be seen for example in the case of numbers, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is a day known. Accordingly, the lag on 25. March 2020 the number of people Infected with 31.554, the number of deaths at 149.“
Dangerous Half-Knowledge
In this statement, several errors are the same. The Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and the resulting disease COVID-19 means. But the start of a pandemic will not be here with a completed influenza-wave compared. No man can know at this time how these Numbers will look in a couple of months and what is the role of the taken protection measures.
In terms of the Spanish influenza in the years 1918 and 1919 showed, however, that isolation measures on the incidence and mortality rate could be reduced by up to 50 percent. For more information read the article: Corona-pandemic: What can we of the Spanish flu, learn how to.
In addition, the COVID-19-mortality rates in Germany in an international comparison very low. This is not least due to the fact that Germany has a high level of Expertise in intensive care medicine and all Concerned are very well catered for. If this Reservoir is exhausted, it would also result in a different image in the mortality rate. This shows, for example, in Italy, where 92.472 confirmed COVID-19-cases 10.023 deaths to come (as of: 29.03.2020; Source: Johns Hopkins University).
The mortality rates in Europe correspond to the average
An often-mentioned Argument of the critics is that the current mortality rates in Europe correspond to the average and in some countries even below average. As a source is quoted by the website “EuroMOMO”, where the overall mortality rates are shown in up to 24 European countries. Here, no effects of the Corona can be currently a pandemic reading. But that really does mean that there is no impact?
The answer to that, the operators of the often-cited site itself: “In the last days of the EuroMOMO has received a lot of questions to the weekly data on total mortality and the possible contribution of a COVID-19-related mortality,” writes the EuroMomo Team. “Some ask, why in the reported mortality figures for the COVID-19-affected countries, an increased mortality is observed.”
Opinion of EuroMomo
“The answer is, that increased mortality may occur, especially at the sub-national level or in smaller focus areas and/or concentrated in smaller age groups, is at the national level may be undetectable, even less in the pooled analysis at the European level, because the denominator population is the total very large. In addition, there are always a few weeks delay in the registration and notification of deaths. Therefore, the EuroMOMO must-mortality of the last few weeks, figures to be interpreted with some caution.“
“Even if increased mortality in the EuroMOMO-Figures are not immediately evident, it does not mean that the increased mortality occurs in some areas or in some age groups, including the mortality in connection with COVID-19”, so the opinion of the EuroMomo Teams.
Check your sources carefully
In addition, there are numerous Videos on YouTube, where legitimate appearing “experts” to spread their own Interpretation of the facts. As an example, Dr. Bodo ship is man who released a Video in which he claims that the prestigious journal “New England Journal of Medicine” have declared that the mortality in COVID-19 would be below 0.1 percent.
In the case of the above-mentioned source is the Editorial “Navigating the Uncharted”. This man quoted a single sentence from the Editorial and rating of this without the whole context. This sentence is: “This suggests that the overall clinical are similar to the consequences of Covid-19 ultimately, rather those of a severe seasonal flu (with a death rate of about 0.1%) or a pandemic (similar to those of 1957 and 1968) as a disease such as SARS or MERS, in which the deaths of 9 to 10 percent and 36 percent, respectively.”
Rough Estimates
What is removed from the context first, so sounds like an accurate data would suggest to the position that the morality is less than 0.1 percent, is more apparent when you look at the entire paragraph in the Editorial:
The authors write: “On the basis of a case definition, which requires the diagnosis of a pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate at approximately two percent. In another article it is reported a mortality of 1.4 percent in 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19. These patients had severe a wide range of disease. If it is assumed that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is a multiple of the reported cases, the fatality rate significantly below 1 percent.“
At the very benevolent estimate to be less than 0.1 percent to more than 90 percent of the SARS would have to run CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic – there is no evidence of that. The RKI estimates that on the basis of the current data approximately every second case is asymptomatic. In addition, the study to which the Editorial cites also shows that, for example, Heart patients and hypertension patients are exposed to increased risk. This group alone accounts for over 20 million people in Germany. For more information you can find in the article: COVID-19: In the case of Heart disease, the risk increases.
You must have fear of COVID-19?
It is not a matter to fear or to want to spread fear, but to find a way that as many people as possible to arrive unscathed by the crisis. Much is still unclear, and even if the risk for the Individual would not appear to be very high, it is a total trivialisation dangerous, because it is a new Virus that is highly contagious and for which there is, in contrast to the flu, no Reason for immunity or vaccinations.
The German ethics Council has published a recommendation, the needy, the interests of the Protection of the working population represents. Therefore, the crisis should be tackled with the basic principles of solidarity and responsibility. More about the recommendations of the German ethics Council, see the article: ethics Council recommendation: So we can overcome together the Corona of the crisis! (vb)